I originally titled this “How Life Will Change…” but since I can’t yet see how the fight between Obama and the Congress is shaking out, and how Obama’s low, low intelligence quotient in dealing with governance in general is making the presence of Marxist handlers more plausible, I have to consider two alternate rails toward socialism…the hot-tub, Swedish type of Congress and the hard edged, get-even Marxism of the Obamailis. It’s still too early to know who will win. A year ago I said Obama would be a shoo-in in this contest. I know longer believe this.
But it’s been 14 months now and the recession appears to be deepening in the private sector. More and more people are losing their jobs, and because Obama has been unable to turn health care into the launching pad entitlement the Left desires, those who are losing their jobs are unable to keep their health insurance, private companies are unable to plan for their futures, and Obama is unable to move forward with the rest of his (their) plans. Quagmire. Everything now depends on health care.
But did you watch any sports these past 14 months? College football? Basketball? How about pro football? Golf? From the looks of it, the stadiums and arenas were still filled, the tickets more expensive than ever, the sky-boxes brimming. And sports bars were filled as well. Some people are still living life large these days. What gives?
More specifically, which side will have to give? Will the down-trodden rise, or will the gala money-is-no-object set come crashing down?
The short answer is: the top has to drastically change, and fall. Only question is: How far, and how quickly?
I’ve written before of “fascist/socialist math”. When the private sector diminishes and the public sector expands, you need to understand one of the first rules of fascist/socialist math…the private sector produces money everyone can spend. The State class produces no wealth, but can produce money (by printing it)…only no one can spend it other that those in the State class. So, the economy as we know it is driven by private sector money (called “hard currency” here.) The socialist economy, as much as it tries not to, is driven inexorably toward funny-money.
The perfect balancing act, as Europe has tried for 60 years now, is to keep the private sector fat and plump, so that it will continue to create money (hard currency) which the state can use to finance itself. This is both the socialist and fascist vision (not a lot of difference between them really) versus communist outright ownership. I’m not a monetarist, so I can’t say when the totter teeters too much toward the state, so much that it must start printing its own money to satisfy its needs (we’re doing that now, called the “debt”), or when that teeter becomes well, like the Titanic, irreversibly nosed downward. There are several methods of measurement, and several ways for governments, depending on what their legislatures (and super-legislatures) will allow them to do, to bring about a correction when they see the totter teetering too far.
What I do know about is the blind, rapacious nature of the various state-sector bureaucracies, who, like drunks on a spree, cannot, will not, see the cliff they’re rushing toward in the red Porsche Roadster they stole from the hotel valet. Those guys I know about. Greece is a good example. So is California. So is eBay. So is CitiBank. So I also know about the feckless inability (the psychology of fecklessness is Bernie Chumm’s specialty) of their management class to stop them once they pass a certain fail-safe point. The internal financial politics of bureaucratic management have little or nothing to do with the national politics dealt with here on RedState. Still, they drive all politics in America, not just as the beneficiaries of state spending, but the source of the hunger for it.
The entire EU is built on the notion this bureaucratic balance can be maintained and managed.
It cannot.
So, what does this have to do with sports?
Under either kind of socialism in Amerika’s future, the question I’m asking really is: what will become of those folks who line up six Saturdays a year to tail gate at Cornhusker Stadium, or when all their friends come in for a three-day spree when the Sooners come to town? Rivalry week comes once a year almost everywhere, and those barbecue and hot dog dances off the tailgates of SUV’s are played out in thousands of cities every fall.
But there’s this math no one’s paying attention to. And from it we can ask: will they still be coming in 10 years? 20? 30? Will there be anything to come to? Will there still be people who can pay $200 to a scalper to watch the Knicks and the Celtics? The NFL Playoffs? The Super Bowl? Daytona? March Madness? The Masters? The Open? Wimbledon? The British Open? The World Series?
If you’ve noticed, for-profit advertising and television have made sports a seamless year-long event in America, and a booming business for all the associated sponsors, including Big Beer, Big Auto, Big Pizza, plus the television networks and universities and their associations (NFL, NCAA, etc.). But there’s this math there no one is paying attention to, and namely that all these revenues are from the private sector, and that sector is shrinking, and is expected, at least by one form of socialism, to stay shrunk. It isn’t coming back. (That was always the plan.)
So how will all these really very delicate business connections fare under socialism? Will people still be able to pay the big bucks on an impulse Tuesday night, at the spur of the moment, to see the Knicks play the Celtics in the Garden? Either Garden? Will the Garden even be open? Or had you forgotten who owns all those sports venues? For see, while sports is driven by the private sector, the place where sports is played is owned by some branch of the state. So we have to consider that relationship.
As for our side, the little people who only get to watch big games on big television, the die is cast; if socialism wins, the private sector will begin to slowly settle into a new level of mediocrity in terms of quality of life. And the state sector will grow even more in power, ranks and economic status. They will continue to visit sports events, but only to the extent the overall economy can sustain such fewer numbers. As the alums and diehard fans die off, and as the quality of the game diminishes, can all Nebraska’s state bureaucrats replace these people continue to fill Cornhusker Stadium? Will they want to? I doubt it.
It’s bad enough that those who should be sucking hind teat in a free market economy will be wielding the whip on this old wagon train, they will also have the power to push the wagon team over the cliff…if they lose control of the math.
In short, those fat-wallets at center court at the Staples Center will have to go. Those 40-yard line seats at the Superdome will also have to give it up…and all things pertaining thereto, as the lawyers say.
I can’t say how long it will take, since so far, it seems to be designed that our iconic eight-figure athletes will be the next-to-last to know they’ve also been dealt out of future hands of 7-card Socialist Hold ‘Em. (Hollywood will be last, so read up on UFA if you get a minute.) This is in part to maintain a sense of normalcy during this decline as people find a lot of security in turning on the TV and seeing essentially what they’ve seen the past thirty years. But if the dollar crashes, all bets are off as to speed and how “clean” this severing the people from their sports will be.
To understand this, there is this inescapable math of socialism I keep mentioning.
I have a picture here I want you to see, for from it you can discern all the equations you’ll need to be able to understand how sports can change in Amerika.
This is a photo of the Levski National Stadium in Sofia, Bulgaria, where they hold all their public events and all their giant sports festivals, and their soccer. This photo is from the opening day ceremonies in 1953. It holds just under 50,000. What you are looking at here is the entire assemblage of political and economic power in Bulgaria, roughly 20,000 people. The rest are wives (or favorite secretaries) and usually a few cadres of pom-pom girls you see at every Commie event, singing patriotic songs and dancing with swirling flags and streamers. They are all Party members, from the labor unions, from the large state industries, the military, the most prominent city and state governments, and of course, the national government and party headquarters just down the street.
Do the math. These people represent approximately one half of one per cent (.005) of the population, (about 5 million then), the top of the very top of the Communist Party, which itself made up probably 10% of the population. No one here bought a ticket. They never do. They received an invitation, which was a control-numbered ducat with their name handwritten on it. It was not transferable. They had to produce an ID to get in.
I’ve been to this stadium. There is no parking lot. People arrived by Black Maria limos, are let off, and then proceed in, something like the Academy Awards. Or they travel by bus or tram. There is not a single solitary ordinary worker, or little guy, (for whom the whole revolution was dedicated, and their tireless efforts are for) to be found in this assemblage. This you already know.
What you may not know is that this kind of event generates not one penny of income! It was paid for with Commie funny-money, i.e. inter-departmental transfers, which is what happens when you break that link between the “taxpayer” and the private sector (hard currency) and the costs of running government, as socialism in its various faces always seems to do.
Everyone else? The citizens? Well, in those days, whether it was an event honoring the October Revolution, or one of the really big futball matches between their best teams, Levski and CSKA, the people “had” to listen to it on mandated-state-radio, for nothing else was on the radio. TV came much later. It would be the 1980’s before people could afford one, and since many villagers still had no electricity when communism fell in 1991, just like it was when I was a kid, and television first came to our town, you still found people gathered around a store window watching futball on a little 15 inch screen, even in 1998.
I will tell you that this is not the picture most “hot-tub” socialists like Nancy Pelosi, Al Gore, and others have in mind for Amerika. They still see Sweden in their dreams…even as Sweden is beginning to sink into the sea of funny-money debt itself, as I write this. But there is still this inescapable logic in the math, not just about the funny money, but also the concentration of power in what would be approximately 1-1.5 million people in Amerika using these ratios.
Real money, “hard currency”, is created by the production of goods and services. As the national “hard currency”-private sector output diminishes, the state class’s own perquisites and salaries, especially as they rise, easily can become delinked from anything we actually know as money. This is as much a psychological as it is an accounting state of mind. Their money is just paper script. A coupon. All they know is the unquenchable thirst for it, and when denied, like a man wandering around in the desert, will take it in any form; from a tap, a plastic Evian bottle or a rusting 50-gallon drum with eggs hatching on the surface.
At some point, they simply pass that point of no-return. In the USSR at the time of the Fall, the official exchange rate for the Ruble against the dollar was 2,6:1, while, just off Arbot Street in Moscow, down a back alley, i could buy a wheelbarrow full for one nice crisp Franklin. Heavy one-Ruble Lenin coins were used by modelers as bases upon which to mount toy soldiers. The Soviets saw this as a very bad thing, because there was nothing in Moscow that anyone was supposed to be able to buy with a Franklin. Their economic system could not afford for hard currency to be in the hands of the people. This is why the Soviets criminalized the “free market” and the selling of services as if they were national acts of treason, felony crimes…hard currency that is created and spent outside the control of the national government can bring that government down. It did.
This is out and out communism, and we’re by no ways there…yet. I say “yet” because, while Lenin started with state-ownership at the outset, the better model for Europe, and possibly the US, is that unknown, invisible line will be crossed, where the teeter can no longer be corrected, and absolutism will then be the only governmental correction left available to the State. This is a very plausible track over say, 30-40 years if socialism succeeds in Amerika. Europe is closer, much closer, only when they go, we will already be powerless to stop our own train wreck.
My “stadium” model here is of a communism where the government owns the means of production, while authoritarians, fascists and Euro-socialists only want to control it. But the natural drift of the bureaucracies is toward that cliff where even the finest accounting and management practice (an oxymoron in socialist government anyway) can’t keep them from spending (on themselves) more than the hard currency (private) side of economy can produce, thus jumping over the cliff. The EU was designed to buy the nationalities of Europe a few more good years, but even that has hardly slowed down the pace.
Do your own math, and use the 5 million formula; i.e., 20,000 top ranking socialist “party members”, the New Privileged Class, per 5 million. That means only seven or eight of these Levski-sized stadiums should exist in California Pop: 37 million) to fill the needs of the Party powerfuls in that region. But they’ve already got the Rose Bowl (100,000) so a couple more spread around the state should suffice. The others? What about Bulldog Stadium at Fresno State (holds 30,000)? Good God, California alone has a gazillion of these. What will be done with them?
Well, they won’t be hosting rivalry week events for very long. You laugh. Environmentalists have their own idea what to do, and some will indeed be torn down and turned into llama pastures or some sort or renewable energy source. Maybe just a green zone. But most will simply be downsized to fit the newer missions of university athletics, which will be multi-purpose, non-contact intramural type sports. Some sports programs will be dropped altogether, only don’t expect a fan-poll as to which should stay and which should go. No matter how far down the totem pole soccer sits in sports esteem in America, you will see it grow in Amerika. And no matter how high you think pigskin football stands, you will most likely see it disappear over this 30 year period. Still other sports will return to regional sandlot adventures, much like baseball was in the 1890s, or in the POW camps in the Pacific.
And this will be easier to accomplish than you think, from top to bottom, for grade school kids dreaming of being a pro-linebacker, the dream will simply dry up, because all the money will have dried up. If there is no million dollar contract with the Pistons or the Colts down the road, they will simply do something else…and the state already has plans as to what that “something else” might be. In a short span of no more than 30 years kids will no longer dream those dreams of gridiron glory any longer. The Crimson Tide will be just a song title.
For you see, those 20,000 Party Members sitting in Levski stadium will be the sole source for sponsorship revenues for sports. They will replace Big Beer, Big Tostitos, and the like. They will be the sole pursers of sports in America. Those 20,000 people will decide the fate of ever other sports venue in their designated 5 million man territory, and whether it lives or dies. And those decisions will be based entirely on their own amusement, their own entertainment interests, and their own personal alliances.
So, what will become of Cornhusker stadium when there is no longer a large enough private hard-currency market to support that big game with Oklahoma? As the economy shrinks, advertising revenues will shrink (When labor…SEIU… becomes the sponsor of the Super Bowl, rest assured no hard currency will exchange hands), which mean the shares of those revenues passed out to NCAA schools will also shrink. Cash strapped fans will only be able to pay less, not more, for tickets, so either ticket prices drop, or another way to pay for the event has to be found. The university (the state class) itself will see its funding sources from the government turned into Commie funny money, having no real hard currency value (just like the ruble) and will simply be unwilling to fund these programs unless they can generate large sums of hard currency. With television and advertising gone (The Third and Vine Tony’s Pizza Cotton Bowl?) the only hard currency generated would be from hot dog sales.
The discriminating commie bureaucrat would simply shut the program down…not out of malice, but rather indifference and bureaucratic expedience…the same way they starved 3 million in Ukraine, and the same way they will employ the death panels under Obamacare. All will be very logical in their warped universe.
If you think this is far-fetched, it really isn’t simply because of the logic of the math. Whatever sports survive will find sponsorship from labor unions and state-owned or run industries, the ACORN Open…but only to the point that they can recoup their costs by filling that one stadium (with Party members who are using state funny-money to pay for their tickets, i.e, inter-departmental funds transfers, no real hard dollars involved, no street value). Ordinary people won’t be able to go…or probably want to. Forget about filling hundreds of stadiums every week.
When the state class becomes the principal attendees to sporting events, there is less and less hard currency involved, the expenses all paid for by inter-departmental transfers…which is why the communist states all had a two-tiered monetary system. The occasional scalper (nephew of the First Secretary) and the hot dog vendor will bring more hard currency to the event than ticket sales. And since the media will be inside the loop, those revenues too will be with socialist funny-money.
There may be a General Motors-sponsored event. Maybe the NBA finals. Or (gag me with a stick) the World Cup soccer championships. (I actually like soccer, but still…) But there won’t be a Ford-sponsored event by then. In fact, there probably won’t be a Ford, once they’ve finished off Toyota.
Go to Europe and count the national sports, the ones that can fill a stadium of 50,000 or more. Soccer. Formula One racing (6 times a year). Yanni or Andre Rieu can draw bigger crowds than basketball there. Reason? There isn’t that big a hard currency base. And there is the snob appeal of anything not proletarian. Amerikans in the state class like to emulate Euro-tastes, so see the entire sports industries which entail a fellow sitting down in front of a television with a slice of pizza in one hand and a Coors Light balancing on his belly to be a sight they’d just as soon be shed of. Does anyone besides me like Onslow of “Keeping of Appearances” on PBS.?
The culture of government will be (already are) antagonistic towards mass sporting events. I can see one of the big 3 sports in America surviving. Basketball, most likely, as it has a good following among females as well. Title IX. Baseball will in all likelihood return to the sandlot, and warmer regions of Amerika, and with all those stadiums already built, may take on a semi-pro aspect, with more and more Spanish surnames involved. Still, I doubt serious sponsorship. I can envision both football and auto racing disappearing altogether, but despite the general state-class antipathy for both, a more rational reason is they will simply be expensed out of existence. Football is the most exepensive of the sports to showcase. By 2040 Cornhusker Stadium won’t be able to afford its upkeep just to showcase 165 pound white quarterbacks throwing passes to 155 pound white wide receivers before a crowd of 15,000 die hard 65-year old alums, when the only local sponsors will be Mom and Dad’s Homestyle Cooking Restaurant, the only chain in Nebraska with more than 10 stores.
VB